The stock market’s performance won’t definitively determine who wins the White House, especially in a year as unpredictable as 2020. History, however, shows the incumbent has a clear advantage when the market rallies in the months preceding Election Day.
Going back to 1928, incumbent presidents, or candidates from the controlling party, have won nearly 90% of elections when the S&P 500 is positive in the previous three months, according to brokerage firm BTIG.
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